I've read 100 pages now, so please don't share spoilers 😦
‘The Ministry of the Future’, is a *climate dystopian novel set in 2070. 30 pages into the book, I read one of the most chilling portrayals of what global warming really means. The story goes like this: An unprecedented heatwave strikes northern India. It claims over 20 million lives in just two days. Faced with national collapse, India resorts to a last-resort geoengineering strategy: injecting aerosols (pollution from coal emissions, fossil fuel burning, crop burning, etc.) into the stratosphere to block sunlight and cool the land. It is described not as policy, but as an act of survival. This fictional narrative was so chilling, it was… mimicking a real-world scenario.
It foretold our toxic truth: we are already, unintentionally, geoengineering the climate through air pollution.
Since the 1950s, India has warmed by about 0.6°C, about half the rate observed in other parts of the Northern Hemisphere. This anomaly is largely attributed to the high concentration of aerosols.
This so-called ‘cooling’ of India comes at a staggering human cost. In 2021, aerosol pollution contributed to 2–3 million deaths in South Asia due to respiratory and cardiovascular disease.
We’re fighting the hot sun, but poisoning our lungs as the trade-off. Therein lies India’s climate paradox, and a dangerous future beckons.
Brighter skies, fiercer heat
The aerosol cooling effect in India is most pronounced across the densely populated Indo-Gangetic Plain, a stretch that spans from eastern Pakistan across northern India to Bangladesh. This region is home to nearly half a billion people. Aerosols here have reduced surface temperatures by as much as 0.7°C over the past few decades, according to studies by NASA’s Earth Observatory. Major cities like Delhi, Kanpur, and Patna frequently top global pollution charts, not just for poor air quality but for their role in masking the actual extent of global warming in South Asia.
Further north, the consequences extend into the fragile Himalayan ecosystem. Aerosols drifting up from the plains darken snow and ice, reducing reflectivity and accelerating glacial melt. This paradoxically contributes to both localized cooling through aerosol shading and regional warming due to soot deposition. The Ganga basin, fed by Himalayan glaciers and sustaining over 400 million people, is thus caught in a double bind. The polluted air over it is cooling the surface, but also harming respiratory health, disturbing monsoon patterns, and threatening long-term water security. What might seem like temporary relief from heat is in fact a high-stakes gamble with public health and planetary systems.
Picture the paradox of our aerosol pollution. As India implements measures to reduce airborne emissions, from stricter vehicle norms to cracking down on crop-burning, the air will grow cleaner. This is a positive outcome for public health, but will paradoxically reveal a darker climate challenge. With fewer aerosols, more sunlight reaches the surface, triggering a “termination shock” of accelerated warming . Studies show that when sulfate emissions drop suddenly, surface temperatures spike sharply.
This could mean a more rapid warming of India than ever before. Air quality improves, but heat stress intensifies. As aerosols fade, the sun’s full force returns, unfiltered and unrelenting.
We’re living on borrowed time.
The dire need for carbon removal
India stands at the intersection of urgent development needs and growing climate responsibility. India is the world’s third-largest emitter of CO₂, contributing around 7% of global emissions in 2022, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Yet, our per capita emissions are still under 2 tonnes per person (compared to over 15 in the US). India faces a dual mandate: decarbonize while growing. But cutting emissions alone is no longer enough. The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report estimates that by 2050, the world needs to remove between 5–10 gigatonnes of CO₂ annually to stay on a 1.5°C pathway.
For India, building carbon removal infrastructure isn’t just about global targets, it’s also a strategic lever to access emerging carbon markets valued at $1 trillion by 2037 (McKinsey), and build resilience in a climate-vulnerable country where over 700 million people depend on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture.
We have the opportunity to show the world how we tackle climate change.
India’s geography also give it unique advantages to scale carbon removal solutions. Over 60% of India’s land is used for agriculture, opening up opportunities for enhanced rock weathering, biochar, and soil carbon sequestration — all while improving yields and restoring degraded soils.
The government has already begun exploring carbon market frameworks. India’s capacity for low-cost R&D and distributed deployment can allow it to become a carbon removal hub for the Global South. According to a 2023 BCG study, carbon removal could add $90–150 billion to India’s GDP by 2050, if scaled thoughtfully with global cooperation.
We need carbon removal that lasts.
We need heat-adapted agriculture and cooling infrastructure.
We need public awareness, unified policy, and regional cooperation.
Escaping the paradox
What began as a fictional survival tactic in The Ministry of the Future has inadvertently become our present. Pollution may be cooling us now, but it’s steadily poisoning our lungs and setting us up for runaway heat.*
As of publishing this, the Indian government is working with Air Conditioner manufacturers to limit the minimum temperature at 20 degrees.
We face a false comfort: clean on the surface, toxic at depth.
The only way out is to build the future we want: one with clean skies and safe temperatures. It is a hard path, but leaving it is not an option.